Can’t figure out this economy? Walmart, Home Depot are having trouble, too

If you think the economy is confusing right now, consider how baffling it must look to Home Depot and Walmart.

Last week, the two big retailers sent cautious signals about the health of the U.S. consumer. In a nutshell: Walmart said U.S. consumer spending started the year strong, but that it expect households to back off through the year, producing weak fiscal-year 2024 U.S. sales growth of 2 to 2.5 percent. Home Depot said consumer spending is holding up, but that it expects a flat sales-growth year overall, with declining profits.

Indeed, the latest inflation read from last...